Successful export managers can be
compared to roulette experts. You need
to spread your bets around many
countries in order to achieve your
sales budget. Winning reflects luck
in the countries where you place big
investments and avoiding high risk
regions. Export Solutions has recently
completed projects in 31 countries across
5 continents: China, Philippines, Brasil,
Mexico, UK, Russia, and of course,
the USA. There’s lots of potential new
business if you know where to look.
The “loud” conclusion is that most
brands should consider an Asian pivot
focusing on high growth countries with
large populations and expanding middle
class. This includes priority countries like
China and southeast Asian Tigers like
Indonesia, but also Saudi Arabia and
is “Bigger than BRIC” for international
brands. Favorable exchange rates make
this an excellent time for international
brands to invest in taking their USA
business to the next level.
Country Segmentation Definitions
All countries are not created equal, with
population and GDP representing just
starting points. Category development,
retail fragmentation, and cost of entry
also signify key filters. Historically,
Export Solutions’ one page strategy
grids have segmented countries into three
groups. First, Strategic countries such as
China, India, and Mexico that boast large
populations and require focused
investments in marketing and human
resources. A second group of countries
is identified as Priority countries. Priority
countries are mid-size, with populations
between 10-50 million and require more
modest levels of investment and
management oversight. Our third
group can be considered Opportunistic
countries. These are small countries
which can be important profit generators
with minimum resources deployed.
Crawl, Walk, Run, Wait, Halt
Export Solutions is adding five
incremental segments to assess market
potential. Crawl, Walk, Run, Wait, and
Halt refine our market development
recommendations based upon
commercial realities of the countries
today. These comments reflect the
position the countries may be in the
development curve combined with
current economic and retail dynamics.
Crawl
Crawl countries are markets where it’s
time to get started! This may include an
initial market assessment and a small first
order. Crawl countries have an emerging
retail structure supported by a network
of professional distributors. The objective
in crawl countries is to establish a brand
presence, gain learning, and secure some
first mover advantage benefits before the
“rest of the crowd” arrives and listing fees
escalate. Maintain modest expectations,
even in giant countries like India.
Walk
This signals a second phase in country
development. It is likely that your brand
has already established a beach head and
may be experiencing impressive year
on year results from a small base. These
countries warrant more attention and
investment. In the walk phase, you
may change your partner from a small
distributor who is really a “buyer” to
a more powerful partner capable of
building your brand at another level.
Philippines, Indonesia, Colombia, and
Saudi Arabia are all excellent examples
of “Walk” countries.
Run
Now is the time for brands to invest in
these high potential countries. China and
the USA (foreign brands) top the list of
strategic countries where your senior
management must commit to incremental
resources. This includes local teams,
small factory (or copacker/jv), research,
and marketing investments. Evaluate
your China and USA shipments and
validate that you are content with your
current shipment trajectory. More than
likely, you will need to revise your
strategic plan to better access these
benchmark countries. The Gulf, Korea,
and Panama are smaller countries that
offer exceptional growth opportunities.
Wait
I am a big believer in Brasil. However,
the current recession coupled with
existing market complexities make Brasil
a country for only the most seasoned
multinationals to compete. Africa’s one
billion citizens represent the last, great
untapped consumer market for most
consumer brands. Each month, I receive
two types of calls on Africa. The first
requests help, as no one seems to have
cracked the code. The second type of call
relates to another diversion problem from
Nigeria, Kenya, or Ghana. I never receive
calls on any success stories. South Africa
is the exception, a “Crawl” or “Walk”
country for most.
Halt
Newspapers and financial indicators
accurately identify these countries. Some
exporters with “poor eyesight” continue
to pursue these countries despite the
obvious risks. This month, I took a call
from a mid-size Italian company, where
the export manager had lost his job over
a $400,000 default from a well known
Russian distributor. I recently completed
a $20 million project for Argentina where
the big issue was not brand building
capabilities but access to capital and
ability to clear foreign goods through
customs. Most hope that the fourth
Crawl, Walk, Run, Wait, Halt!
continued on next page
13