By Helen Armstrong
(This article is based on the Deloitte Global Powers of Retailing 2009 and a presentation made of Dr. Ira Kalish,Deloitte’s Director Global Economics during the NRF Big Show.)
Intro
Globalisation may have slowed but it will continue. As the economic fall-out ripples around the world even the emerging countries have been hurt. It has caused a shake-out of retailers but when the dust settles the emerging markets will once again prove worthy for investors, both foreign and domestic.
Summary
Food and other fast-moving consumer goods represent just over half of the retailers in Deloitte's annual Global Powers of Retailing report. These huge companies, with average retail sales of $19.1 billion in 2007, have made a strong push to globalise. Over time we can also expect more consolidation of non-food retailers and in Europe they may enter the Top 10 list. In the future for companies to be successful they will need to be clearly differentiated, have clear brand identity, be good innovators, and offer a superior consumer experience.
International expansion has been an important aspect of many large retailers’ growth strategies. Indeed, the larger the company, the more likely it is to operate beyond its domestic borders and to generate a higher percentage of its sales from foreign operations. On average, the Top 250 retailers listed in Deloitte's annual Global Powers of Retailing report operated in 6.8 countries in 2007, up from 6.2 countries in 2006 and 5.9 in 2005. In total, 21.3 per cent of sales came from outside retailers’ home countries.
However, in recent years, the sales boost from international expansion activities has become less clear and there is very little difference in the five-year composite growth rates between those retailers with a presence in ten or more countries and single-country operators (7.5 per cent vs. 7.4 per cent). Retailers that stayed close to home actually outpaced their international peers by nearly two percentage points in 2007. Their stronger sales growth, however, did not translate as well into corresponding profitability. Companies operating exclusively in their home country had a composite net profit margin of 2.7 per cent in 2007, while the more globally minded retailers enjoyed a four per cent return. These findings are consistent with 2006 results.
In part, these findings can be explained by the fact that many Top 250 retailers expanded their international operations significantly over the last decade. Room for continued expansion has become more limited, and global markets have become more competitive. For many, profitability rather than growth has become the priority in foreign investment.
Until now most of the retail globalisation has been made by grocer retailers, led by European food retailers who faced market saturation and regulatory constraints at home. Today things are changing. Non-food retailers such as home improvement, electronics and fashion are starting to spread their wings. Also companies from emerging markets are rising through the ranks of global players.
2006 saw the entry of two Russian and four Chinese retailers in the Deloitte listing. The 2008 ranking revealed that all six of these retailers have climbed significantly. Indeed two Chinese retailers now feature in the Top 100: Gome Home Appliance Group is ranked 63rd and is the 8th highest ranked retailers in Asia-Pacific.
Looking at the level of globalisation by broad geographic regions, European and Africa/Middle East retailers dominate in terms of the degree to which they operate internationally. French and German retailers are the most international. The 13 French retailers in the Top 250 list operated in an average 18.9 countries in 2007 and generated 35.3 per cent of their sales from outside their domestic borders. The 21 German retailers did business in an average 13.8 countries and generated the highest share of sales from foreign operations, 41.8 per cent.
The majority of U.S. retailers tend to do most business at home. The vast majority of sales (88.3 per cent) of retailers in the Top 250 still come from domestic operations and just 38 of the 87 U.S.-based companies listed in the Top 250 have international operations.
Asia/Pacific (Japan, in particular) and Latin American retailers lag even further behind. The 24 Japanese retailers in the Top 250 list operated in an average of just 2.8 countries in 2007. Only ten per cent of their retail sales took place outside Japan. Latin American retailers operated in the fewest number of countries, just 1.6. Their international operations comprised 9.9% of sales.
Retailers in emerging markets
However, strong domestic retailers in the emerging markets of Latin America, Asia/Pacific and Africa are expanding rapidly in an effort to impede foreign competition. The high composite growth rate for retailers in the Asia/Pacific region reflects rapid growth of Chinese, Korean and Taiwanese companies. In Australia, Wesfarmers’ sales soared with the acquisition of Coles in November 2007. Particularly robust growth was enjoyed by five of the six retailers that comprise the Africa/Middle East region, resulting in the highest composite growth rate among all regions. In addition to rapid sales growth, Latin American retailers were the most profitable, led by department store retailers Falabella and Liverpool.
In the meantime, the global recession has had a dramatic effect on international retail. We have already seen a tremendous shift towards discount formats especially in the US and western Europe and we are seeing consumers shift from well know brands to private label. In this economic environment we see a very value orientated price conscious consumer and this will continue while the economy remain in poor shape.
The market is also experiencing an unusual shake-out of retailers. Investors have liquidated their assets in emerging markets in order to cover their losses at home. This has put pressure on equity markets and currencies in those countries creating economic problems: the emerging world has found it is not immune from the developed world.
On the positive side, the main emerging countries tend to have fairly substantial financial resources, reasonable reserves of foreign currency and transparent financial institutions.
Therefore, although many emerging countries are slowing down, they are unlikely to go into recession and will instead continue to grow.
China
Take China. The country is experiencing a fairly surprising sharp slowdown in its economic activity. After many years of rapid economic growth, thousands of factories have shut down and an estimated 10 million workers have been let go from factory jobs last year as demand for exports slowed. Many of these people came from rural areas and migrated to big cities to take advantage of job opportunities. It is estimated of this 10 million, five million have already returned to their home towns as part of a backward migration.
However, the other five million young men and women remain in the big cities unemployed, potentially a recipe for social unrest.
To try and keep people in work, the government is engineering a massive fiscal stimulus, similar to that in US, which should help stimulate the Chinese economy in the long run. A positive effect of the slowdown in demand has been a reduction in inflation. Looking at China’s history, China’s social unrest has usually coincided with excessive inflation so the fact it has come down should mean more stability and more latitude for the government.
Although retail sales in China are likely to slow down this year in the long term China is very well positioned because it undergoing a shift in the structure of its growth with a move away from exports towards domestic demand. All in all, a higher value currency, higher wages, less manufacturing and more services will see more poor people moving into the middle class which means from a retailer and manufacturer perspective, China is a very attractive market.
India
India is also undergoing an economic slowdown and is unlikely that it will experience the double digit growth it has seen over the last few years. However, this was already leading to rising inflation due to the bottle-necks in India: poor infrastructure and excessive regulation especially in the labour market which impedes efficiency on the part of business.
Instead, economic growth is likely to continue at around six to seven per cent over the next decade.
Like China, retail will undergo strong growth in India– stronger than the overall economy -because as the economy grows it allows more poor people to join the middle classes. Their needs for shopping facilities will increase bringing about a strong growth of modern retail, taking market share away from more traditional forms of retail. It is expected that modernisation will mostly come from indigenous companies - the big Indian conglomerates which have chosen to invest in retail. They are also getting ahead-start on foreign retailers who are still largely restricted from investing in the Indian retail market.
Russia
Russia has experienced very strong economic growth over the last decade thanks to the high price of oil and gas but as the price has dropped again growth is clearly slowing down.
In addition, Russia has been particularly had hit by the credit crunch. During the good years many Russian companies borrowed heavily on global capital markets to take advantage of the low cost of capital. Now that this capital has dried up and companies can no longer roll over their debts, they can’t service their debts to Russian banks. They themselves have experienced large capital losses, and the government has been forced to assist. The next stop could be a devaluation of the currency as capital exits the country.
Over the last decade retail sales have grow very rapidly and foreign retailers operating in Russia have done very well. It is surprising therefore that not more foreign retailers have entered Russia. However, many global retailers were wary of the political risks: Now they will be wary of the economic risk and a slow-down in consumer spending.
Brazil
Brazil has done many of the right things and has enjoyed good economic growth over the last few years. Now it is being affected by issues out of its control: the weaker commodity prices have led to a slow-down in demand particularly in China which has hurt export growth putting pressure on the currency.
In addition, many foreign investors have withdrawn their capital from Brazil in order to cover their losses at home. This has led to a weakening in investment spending and, subsequently, economic growth.
As a result Brazil will see a slow down and its GDP growth is likely to reduce of a half compared with 2008. However, the country is unlikely to enter a recession and it will bounce back because it has many positive aspects.
The retail industry is already surprisingly modern and sophisticated relative to the country’s economic situation. It will continue to modernise but also consolidate. The country has a relatively stable political and economic situation relative to other emerging markets so it can expect more investment by foreign retailers again in the future.
Middle East
The Middle East is also beginning to see a slowing of the economy as oil prices have come down. Therefore the investment, which has accounted for about half of the growth of Persian Gulf countries over last few years, is likely to decrease. On a positive note this is leading to a fall in inflation.
On the other hand, many people employed in the Gulf are guest workers and as the economy declines people will return to their (poor) countries.
For the long term, retail still looks very promising. The Middle East is an area which will see continued growth in its population, income, tourism and there is still a lot of opportunity to bring modern sophisticated retail to this region.
Top trends over the next decade
Cut costs: Cash will be king. Companies will want to hoard cash which is converse to a couple of years ago when companies were encouraged to leverage it. Capital expenditure will be cut. Retailers will renegotiate with suppliers to remain competitive.
Risk mitigation: Increasingly retailers will focus on risk mitigation which takes into account many aspects including terrorist attacks; surges in commodities, economic downturns, pandemics, etc.
Customer experience: Companies will offer a superior shopping experience to encourage customers to stay longer in a shore and return again. Also customers will pay a premium price for commodity products if they have a better experience.
Human resource management: This will become a critical issue especially as the workforce becomes older and birth rates decrease. Traditionally employees on the shop floor are not well paid, are not well trained and show little loyalty. Nevertheless these people represent the company. For retailers to be successful they will have do more to train people and engender loyalty.
Multi-channel: Successful companies will make a seamless connection between shopping in a store and on-line.
Smaller stores: Small, convenience stores will accelerate, especially in emerging markets. This will happen as building restrictions impede large-scale store but also as consumers shop more often for fresh products and to top-up.
Market segmentation: Successful retailers will have a portfolio of stores to suit the growing range of different customers and market segments.
Globalisation will continue: Many food retailers are already global but non-food retailers will globalise as well due to market saturation at home.
Re-think supply chains: When the global economy recovers, oil price will increase as well. The assumption that wages in China will stay low and that transportation is cheap is no longer valid.
Brand management: The most successful retailers will be the best brand managers, creating their own strong brands. This will be very important as retailers face the risk of commoditisation: as products all start to look alike the only difference will be price so the successful retailers will derive more sales from non-tangible aspects.
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